POLS 2100
Mayhem in the Mediterranean
We will start by examining some of the historical particulars of this conflict. This region has been under dispute since the fall of the Ottoman Empire. By about the late 1800’s, Cyprus was negotiated and claimed by British rule and remained as such until the end of World War ll (Cyprus profile – Timeline, 2018). British presence had varying acceptance. The northern Turkish region seemed to tolerate this far better than the southern Greek Cypriots. In 1950, Archbishop Makarios lll, a Greek, and Turkish vice-president were elected in a unification effort (United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus, 2021). Unification was but a moment and stalled given Markarios’ support for Enosis, the goal to reunite with Greece. By 1960, the now Republic of Cyprus had gained soft independence through the London and Zurich Agreements with heavy influence remaining through guarantors Greece, Turkey, and the UK (Cyprus profile – Timeline, 2018). Independence was an outcome that neither the Greeks nor Turkish fully supported so conflict ensued. In 1964, the Archbishop enacted law that would heavily restrict Turkish resident rights, thereby increasing conflict among Greek and Turkish residents, escalating so far as to necessitate UN peacekeeping troops (Taherian, 2020).
Dispute between these two groups culminated in 1974 when a coup d'état was led by Greek-Cypriots at the behest of mainland Greece unhappy with Markarios’. Greece’s new military leader saw Markarios’ efforts toward Enios as lackluster. The Turkish government responded by sending troops of its own in Operation Atilla capturing up to 40% of the island (Cyprus profile – Timeline, 2018). Once again, the UN increased forces in the region committed to extending and expanding its peacekeeping efforts and maintain military status quo (United nations peacekeeping force in Cyprus, 2021). The institutionalization of a buffer zone on the island, known as the green line, would be part of the status quo initiative. This would separate the northern third of the island inhabited by the Turkish and the southern two thirds occupied by Greeks. Despite peacekeeping troops on the ground, tensions would remain high (United nations peacekeeping force in Cyprus, 2021).
Let’s further examine these tensions and evaluate the division that makes peace so difficult on this small island. Throughout history, the island has been inhabited by Greeks and Turks alike with Greeks compromising the island 3:1 (Taherian, 2020). As we evaluate this problem, we see some of the details have already been presented. In this paper, we will simplify the problem(s) through a macroscopic lens as being three-fold; conflict resolves around political, ethnic, and geographical barricades. We will start with the geographical dilemma. This may be the simplest to grasp as the island is divided by the northern third and southern two thirds; Turks to the north and Greeks to the south. Geographically, Turkey lies directly to the north and Greece to the northwest. These two groups once lived among each other but were segregated after multiple initiatives to root out Turkish residents, who were viewed as inferior. The physical split that exists to this day effectuates all past, present, and likely future differences.
Next, we see an ethnic split. This barrier is significant because Turkish residents remain resistant, although less so compared to their Greek counterparts, to unification because of potential power distribution. As stated earlier, Greeks outnumber Turks 3:1. Turkish residents see this as a threat to their power and culture. Likewise, Greeks are concerned unification would empower too many Turkish leaders which would threaten their power and or culture (Taherian, 2020). Lastly, the political split may be one of the most complex pieces. In 1960, after the Republic of Cyprus was enacted, the newly formed republic lay claim to the entire island; the northern territory did not share the sentiment. Rather, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus saw itself as a sovereign nation that to this day is only formally recognized by the Turkish government (History of Cyprus, 2021). Any political resolutions would likely require Turkey removing itself from the northern territory, which is unlikely from all accounts. Cyprus, Turkey, UK, and US are all members of NATO which makes the global outcome and balance of all involved interests an even more delicate issue.
Despite the uphill battle, peace talks and other efforts have continued to this day. In 2008, the island officially joined as a member of the European Union (EU) which many viewed as a potential pathway for peace later on. Throughout the late 2000’s, there were ongoing peace talks and symbolic peace offerings, such as the opening of Ledra street in Nicosia for the first time since 1964 (Cyprus profile – Timeline, 2018). In 2015, discussions surrounding reunification resumed after a five-year hiatus. Discussions went on for two years and ended in 2017 without a plan or directive. As of 2020, an Anti-Reunification Turkish leader won by a narrow margin and Cyprus recommitted to reunification talks, be what it may (Cyprus committed to RESUMING peace Talks, 2020). There are also notable stalls in agreement talks. The discovery of oil and gas along the northern coast of the island remains the most prominent obstacle. Turkey monitors the coastline closely for any Cypriot government excavators who claim rightful ownership. Other obstacles include Turkish military presence, redrawing the demilitarized zone, and restriction of mergers between Cyprus and Greece or TRNC and Turkey (Cyprus committed to RESUMING peace Talks, 2020). As of 2020, the UN continues to occupy the island with roughly 1,000 personnel and mission supplies which cost upwards of $56 million annually (Taherian, 2020).
From a political science perspective, many conclusions can be drawn about this conflict. One conclusion is the ongoing Fundamental Attribution Bias (Pevehouse, J. C., & Goldstein, 2012). This bias simply states that one party will always mistrust its adversary's behavior. Whether truly hostile or not, any action will be viewed as such and the opposite set of values will be applied to applicator of bias. Continuation of this bias will make future peace agreements challenging and appear seemingly unproductive. Another helpful analysis is Prospect Theory which contains the Status Quo Bias (Pevehouse, J. C., & Goldstein, 132, 2012). This evaluates a scenario based on outcome, a gain or loss. With outcome at the center, Status Quo bias attributes the degree to which an outcome may be sought, whether there is gain or loss. More resources are typically employed to maintain what is rather than to achieve more, even if mutually or independently beneficial. The outcome becomes gridlock and provides one possible explanation of the stalemate surrounding the Cyprus dispute.
Presently, the Cyprus dispute is one of fourteen UN peacekeeping efforts around the world. While all present unique challenges, many agree that hostility and tensions would be higher without the UN present. Others see the UN as a barrier to any meaningful change; needless to say, there is no fully supported method. After 60 years of occupation, the UN and other members see the prospect of a meaningful treaty and remain optimistic. Many believe they are closer to achieving a unified Cyprus now than ever before. With commitment to this cause, Cyprus may one day see a nation that is free of conflict.
References
Cyprus committed to RESUMING peace Talks | | UN NEWS. (n.d.). Retrieved April 09, 2021, from https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/09/1073512
References
Cyprus committed to RESUMING peace Talks | | UN NEWS. (n.d.). Retrieved April 09, 2021, from https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/09/1073512
Cyprus profile - Timeline. (2018, February 07). Retrieved April 10, 2021, from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17219505
History of Cyprus. (2021, March 28). Retrieved April 11, 2021, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Cyprus#Modern_Cyprus
Pevehouse, J. C., & Goldstein, J. S. (2012). International relations. Harlow, England: Pearson.
Taherian, S. (n.d.). (2020) Resolving the Situation in Cyprus. Retrieved April 10, 2021, from https://www.odu.edu/content/dam/odu/offices/mun/docs/ib-sc-cyprus.pdf
United nations peacekeeping force in Cyprus. (2021, March 16). Retrieved April 11, 2021, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Peacekeeping_Force_in_Cyprus
Reflection
To complete this assignment, there was a lot of investigative work that went into learning about the current UN initiatives. I have been highly interested in the Mediterranean for a long time, so I decided to follow up my interest by learning about Cyprus. I had the chance to visit Greece in 2016, which helped me feel an albeit small connection to the region. I will start off by saying that I was unfamiliar with the current dilemma facing the small island. It is not a topic that has been readily shared in my news sources or in my prior undergraduate classes. This mean I would need to complete a lot of reading and watch several YouTube videos to get up to speed. This all took quite a bit of time but I was able to sample from several authors which helped me understand the issue from multiple sides.
While POLS 2100 has specifically concentrated on International Relations, I was able to draw from principles taught in my other course, POLS 2300 which discusses Political Ideology. I was also able to learn about how cultural and ethnic barriers can play a large part of treaty agreements, or stalemates in this matter. In the US, we have soft versions of this that occur but none of which that cause the type of divisions seen in this case. I felt like I was able to get a sense of how world religions, cultures, and the identity of a people can really shape how they view a competing party. Furthermore, it has shown me how difficult a peace agreement can be to achieve.
I feel that this assignment contributed to my intellectual growth in so many ways. It has provided insight to the UN Peacekeeping missions that take place here and around the world. It has made me more aware of the leg work that goes into trying to temper a region from becoming violent and destructive. I would even say that it makes me reconsider all of the various cultures, religions, and peoples that I may interact with on any given day. They have their own set of values and goals and this may prove to be helpful as I meet people in future academic or career settings. I will also be able to provide an informed opinion if I hear updates on the news regarding this matter.